The playoff odds are calculated by simulating the results of the games that remain to be played 1000 times. The number of times that a team finishes in the top 2 in its division out of 1000 possible outcomes represents its chances of making the playoffs The model calculates tiebreakers according to the rules established by the League. It assumes a 50-50 chance of each team winning each game remaining and does not take into account past performance for the sake of predicting outcomes. It does however, account for past performance when calculating point differentials for tiebreakers, and scores in games already played will factor in greater in terms of determining who wins a tiebreaker. The model is far from perfect and we are currently working with a company called Sports Club Stats Inc to provide a more accurate version.
